000
FXUS65 KVEF 042235
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 PM PST SAT FEB 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY BEFORE
A PACIFIC STORM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRYING WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH
LOCAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN INTO SUNDAY...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY. OTHERWISE
UPPER LOW OVER UTAH WITH EASTERN FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
COMBINED TO PRODUCE A FEW CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN GENERALLY
CLOUD FREE SKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LOW WILL STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER UTAH ON SUNDAY...BUT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS
A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES TO JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA BY 12Z TUESDAY. OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA DURING THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT
INTO SPLITTING ENERGY OFF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ON TUESDAY AND TAKING A PIECE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
SOCAL OR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FORMING IT INTO A CLOSED LOW. THE
MAIN ISSUE FOR OUR AREA IS JUST HOW FAR EAST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
GET. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE LOW AND KEEPS
IT OFFSHORE OF SOCAL WHICH AS A RESULT KEEPS OUR AREA COMPLETELY
DRY. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE LOW ALONG THE SOCAL COAST WHICH SPREADS
PRECIPITATION AS FAR EAST AS LAS VEGAS. THE 12Z GEM WAS IN BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS. AS A RESULT I BASICALLY BLENDED THE THREE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WHICH STILL BRINGS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN CWFA. I
DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AS A TIP TO THE GFS
QPF. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE BAJA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 5500 FEET...BUT AGAIN
AMOUNTS MAY VARY WIDELY. RIGHT NOW WE ONLY HAVE A FEW INCHES
FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE ONLY ISSUE IN OUR AREA MAY
BE SOME LINGERING NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MAINLY IN THE LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA. WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE A FEW DEGREES. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TOWARDS EASTERN NEVADA.
SATURDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
CALIFORNIA AND INCREASES MIXING OVER OUR AREA. I RAISED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH PLACED THEM CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE MEX AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMBERS BUT MAY HAVE NOT GONE
WARM ENOUGH ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER SOCAL OR SOUTHERN NEVADA SOMETIME
NEXT SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO BE DRY PER A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS. HOWEVER IT SHOULD LOWER HEIGHTS ENOUGH TO KNOCK
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...MCCARRAN...AROUND 03Z SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD TURN NORTHWEST
AT 5-10 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 19Z SUNDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET AT TIMES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...OVER CLARK...LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY
AT 5-10 KTS EXCEPT IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-28 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OVER INYO AND NORTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WINDS WILL MAINLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

JENSEN/STACHELSKI

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion